North Central regional tournament picture shapes up- will Ohio make it to Minnesota?

As tournament season approaches, the derby world awaits the final regional WFTDA ranking which determines seeding for tournament play. Most games that affect this have been played (with some exception), and the recent East Coast Extravaganza (ECE) featured a slew of games with tournament implication. We can now speculate about what the Brawl of America (the WFTDA North Central regional tournament, Sept. 18-20, 2009) might look like.

1. Windy City (4-0)- Although Cincinnati and Boston gave them a bit of a scare at ECE, both playing WCR closely in the first half, the Rollers still look absolutely untouchable in the North Central. They will come out of Minneapolis as the top seed from the NC heading to Nationals (to me this is the only clear prediction to be made regarding the outcome of the NC regional, the other two NC seeds for Nationals are totally up for grabs).
2. Detroit (3-3)- Detroit is still the clear second best of the NC, but they could legitimately get upset in the tournament. Losing Kat von D’stroya hurt their jammer rotation, but they have picked up some amazing young talent to fill any voids in their roster. A game between DDG and Madison would be very interesting to see right now.
3. Mad Rollin’ Dolls (2-1)- The once undisputed best team of the former East region looks to be climbing once again. After some rebuilding and refueling, the Dolls are consistently winning games against good teams. How they match up against the top remains to be seen.
4. Arch Rival (St. Louis) (4-3)- They are rising stars that just upset a very powerful Duke City team (West region), and if their improvement has continued in recent months they could easily upset Madison, Detroit, or possibly even Windy City. We’ll need to see more from them to know for sure. As impressive as they have been, I am not fully convinced that they deserve the No. 4 seed over Cincinnati (despite a win over them at Fall Brawl 2008).
5. Cincinnati (6-2)- They played WCR very close in the first half at ECE, and then dominated a reasonably strong Atlanta team. They are one or two good players short of being a national title contender. Their top players are easily among the best in the nation, but they don’t have a very deep bench yet, and that has held them back when facing higher ranked teams.
6. North Star (3-1)- These up-and-comers will benefit from having the tournament in their backyard. They have been an impressive addition to the Midwest derby scene, but they have yet to convincingly beat any regional contenders and remain somewhat of a mystery. Rumor has it that the former MNRG Jawbreaker may play for North Star, which immediately gives them a huge boost.
7. Minnesota (3-0)- Two impressive wins at ECE over decent mid-level teams solidify a berth for the tourney hosts: Brew City is much improved and MNRG handled them fairly easily, and a rising Connecticut squad was in the game early but never really threatened MNRG after the first half or so. Minnesota has been rebuilding, and it looks like they are getting on track.
8. Grand Raggidy (3-4)- GRRG squeaks in by riding their sliding, but respectable, previous rankings and two ECE wins. Those wins came over Ft. Wayne and Dominion, two teams that are in the mid level of the rankings, but nonetheless, GRRG gave us no reason to doubt that they are a top 10 team in the NC region. In a head-to-head matchup I think GRRG might not be able to win over BRB, OHRG, BRRG or NRG, but they will get the chance to prove me wrong at regionals.
9. Brew City (2-2)- The Bruisers possibly impressed me the most of the lower-ranked NC teams at ECE. Carrie A. Hacksaw has been a huge boost for them offensively, and their packs are tough as nails. They hung with a good-looking Minnesota squad, and then beat the rising Burning River. Based on performances at ECE, I would probably seed Brew City No. 8, but I expect GRRG to get it based on previous rankings.
10. Ohio (5-3)/ Burning River (1-3)

The last spot comes down to two Ohio teams. OHRG has been more active and is having their best season yet. BRRG has only played a couple sanctioned games so far in their 2009 campaign. OHRG’s wins have come over closely or lower ranked teams, and have been less than impressive. Two of those are blowouts over Gem City (a team that has only recently come out of a long hiatus), and their other three wins have been by a cumulative total of 13 points- over Sioux Falls, Naptown, and Montreal. OHRG lost to the teams they should have lost to in North Star, Steel City and Cincinnati. BRRG is 1-3 in 2009, losing at Fort Wayne, Cincinnati and to Brew City at the ECE. They blew out DC by 108. I think they key to this match up comes down to how OHRG and BRRG played Cincinnati, respectively. BRRG lost to them in Cincinnati by only 14 points. OHRG lost under same conditions by a 52-point margin. OHRG has a slight strength of schedule advantage, but that is mainly based on number of games.

Going off of the DNN “power ranking criterion” (if these two teams played today, who would win?) I think I would give the nod to BRRG. They seem to have better teamwork and smarter players than OHRG does right now. However, considering everything mentioned here, OHRG deserves the No. 10 seed and is more likely to get it. Still, it’s in the hands of the voters who may or may not have all of these facts, or be paying much attention to the details. OHRG also can solidify (or blow) their chances this weekend as they host a struggling Fort Wayne team in a game that voters could be paying attention to. OHRG probably has slightly stronger “name recognition” with the voters (they have been around longer and traveled more than BRRG), which could prove to be an important boost as well.

On the Cusp: Naptown (3-3)- If the voters are kind, there is a slight chance Naptown could be in the mix. Their six-point loss to OHRG in June probably all but eliminates them based on head-to-head matchups. Naptown has had more impressive wins and losses (narrower losses to good teams) than both OHRG and BRRG, but their lack of games approaching the ranking deadline is working against them.

Detroit, Madison, St. Louis and Cincinnati all have a legitimate shot at securing the No. 2 or No. 3 seed for nationals; any of the others teams would have to mount a series of impressive upsets to get a shot at playing in Philly. The tournaments are played under a type of “advantage seeding” system that makes it easier for lower ranked to teams to advance (to a point), so there is a good chance any of the lower seeded teams can play in 3-4 games over the course of the regional tournament. That kind of experience alone may be worth the cost of travel to be a low seed in the upcoming Brawl of America regional tournament.

These comments do not necessarily reflect those of OHRG or the WFTDA. Team records reflect 2009 games only; note that this does not necessarily correspond to a “season” record, as there is no standardized seasonal play in the WFTDA.

Note added just before publishing: Some of the teams discussed here could end up not accepting a tournament spot for various reasons (as in 2008 East regionals when Dominon had to back out after getting a berth). That might make the OHRG/BRRG argument moot, but it also could make things interesting in terms of where Naptown would get seeded. Note that Naptown beat Ft. Wayne, who beat BRRG- but OHRG beat Naptown. Saturdays game between OHRG and FWDG may have more importance than previously thought! Of course, these all all just my opinions and I could be totally wrong on all of it!

-Caesar